TrueProfit

The bottom line

error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset in net sales → error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset kept. That's a error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset net margin — about error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of every dollar, after all real costs.

New-customer CAC is the real acquisition cost; ad cost / order (blended) spreads spend across all orders (repeats included) — lower, but a handy efficiency gauge. Watch both.

Across error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset orders and error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset new customers — error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of orders were repeat buyers — over error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset– error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset. Momentum (last 7 days vs prior 7): net profit error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset, new-customer CAC error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset → error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset.

Monthly P&L — every dollar in, every cost out

Catalog Error: Table with name daily_pnl does not exist!
Did you mean "information_schema.table_constraints"?

LINE 3: ..., sum(ad_spend) ads, sum(net_profit) net from (select * from trueprofit.daily_pnl
                                                                        ^

Where every revenue dollar goes

Catalog Error: Table with name daily_pnl does not exist!
Did you mean "information_schema.table_constraints"?

LINE 3: ..., sum(ad_spend) ads, sum(net_profit) net from (select * from trueprofit.daily_pnl
                                                                        ^

New vs returning customers

Three lenses on the same question — and the gap between them is the story:

Only error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of your customers are repeat buyers (the number Shopify reports) — but they order more often ( error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of orders) and spend more each time ( error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset vs error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset for new), so they drive error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of revenue. Repeat customers punch far above their weight — and cost nothing in ads.

Catalog Error: Table with name daily_customer_split does not exist!
Did you mean "information_schema.constraint_column_usage"?

LINE 5:   from trueprofit.daily_customer_split
               ^

What a typical order actually makes you

Walk down an average error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset order:

• − error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset product cost
• − error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset shipping
• − error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset payment fees + packaging
• = error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset profit, before ads

To win a new customer you spend error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset in ads (real CAC — repeats excluded). Since their first order alone makes error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset before ads, you're profitable on the very first order — a error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset× cushion, with every repeat purchase pure upside.

Are you making money on new customers?

Two lines settle it — ignore blended ROAS/MER, which credit ads for your repeat and word-of-mouth sales:

• 🟦 Profit per order before ads — what an order leaves after product, shipping, fees, packaging.
• 🟧 New-customer CAC — ad spend ÷ new customers (repeats excluded — the real cost to win someone).

As long as blue stays above orange, every customer you buy pays off on their first order, and repeats are gravy.

Catalog Error: Table with name daily_pnl does not exist!
Did you mean "information_schema.table_constraints"?

LINE 2: DESCRIBE SELECT * FROM (with f as (select * from trueprofit.daily_pnl where day between '1970-01-01' and...
                                                         ^

Profit & margin over time

Catalog Error: Table with name daily_pnl does not exist!
Did you mean "information_schema.table_constraints"?

LINE 2: DESCRIBE SELECT * FROM (with f as (select * from trueprofit.daily_pnl where day between '1970-01-01' and...
                                                         ^

Watch list

• On error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset of error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset days, winning a new customer cost more than an order makes before ads — acquisition lost money those days.
• Best day: error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset at error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset net.
• Worst day: error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset at error Row 0 does not exist in the dataset net.

Real COGS (Shopify cost-per-item, effective-dated) · real fees (Shopify Payments) · real shipping (ShipStation) · refunds netted · CAC on new customers only · $1 packaging is the one estimate.